《能源化工》日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural film. It is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, and the market is expected to have limited rebound space [2]. Methanol - In the inland market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance. Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, putting pressure on the port methanol market. The market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, and the 01 - contract inventory contradiction cannot be resolved. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal device operation [4]. Crude Oil - The short - term crude oil market has no clear direction. The continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones support the oil price, but the continuous production increase of OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production limit the rebound space. Brent oil is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [7]. Natural Rubber - Supply - side factors such as cold weather in Yunnan and continuous rainy season in southern Thailand may keep raw material prices high. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space; otherwise, the rubber price is expected to run between 15000 - 15500 [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be relatively loose, with limited demand support and high port inventory. The short - term rebound space of BZ2603 is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. Styrene's supply - demand situation has improved in November, but the rebound space is also limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 for EB12 [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with high production and inventory transfer to the middle and lower reaches. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass has short - term rigid demand support but faces long - term demand contraction pressure, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has support, but the rebound sustainability is insufficient. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November and loose in the future. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation, and short - fiber and bottle - chip also face supply - demand challenges [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the alumina industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with weak demand and limited upward driving force [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices decreased slightly. L15 and PP15 spreads increased. Spot prices of some products decreased, and some basis values changed [2]. - Inventory and开工率: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and social inventories of PE decreased. The PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 showed different trends [2]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 and MA2605 prices decreased. Some basis values and regional spreads changed. Methanol enterprise inventory decreased, while port and social inventories increased [4]. - 开工率: Domestic and overseas upstream enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased [4]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - Product Prices: Some refined product prices such as NYM RBOB decreased, while NYM ULSD increased [7]. Natural Rubber - Prices and Spreads: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and some spreads changed [10]. - Fundamentals: Production in some countries decreased, while China's production increased. Tire production and export showed different trends, and import volume increased [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and some spreads such as pure benzene - naphtha increased [11]. - Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads: Benzene - styrene prices increased, and some spreads and cash - flows changed [11]. - Downstream Cash - flows and开工率: Cash - flows of some downstream products changed, and the开工率 of some products also changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices had different changes, and some basis values changed [12]. - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash production and开工率 decreased, and glass melting volume remained unchanged. Inventories of glass and soda ash increased [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed [13]. - Downstream Product Prices and Cash - flows: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [13]. - PX, PTA, and MEG: PX, PTA, and MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 had different changes, and MEG port inventory and arrival expectations were also provided [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Prices and Spreads: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and some spreads and basis values changed [14]. - Supply and Demand: Supply - side开工率 of PVC and caustic soda changed, and demand - side downstream开工率 also changed. Inventories of PVC and caustic soda decreased [14].