《农产品》日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil is expected to maintain low - level volatility or weak rebounds due to concerns about slowing exports. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan, and there is pressure to weaken further. Port inventories are expected to rise as demand weakens with falling temperatures [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. This supports CBOT soybean oil. In China, spot prices rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory soybean oil inventories changed little, with a balance between production and demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are weak. The market is actively selling pigs, and slaughterhouses have no difficulty in procurement, suppressing prices. The market is in a weak range - bound pattern. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet was in line with market expectations. US soybeans lack substantial bullish factors and face difficulties in continuing to rise. China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and prices will maintain wide - range fluctuations [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - In the corn market, prices in the Northeast are strong due to increased stocking, and those in North China are stable as the number of delivery vehicles to deep - processing plants increases. There is a selling pressure expectation due to a bumper harvest. The demand side shows good deep - processing profits and limited feed - end restocking. Corn prices may have a limited rebound [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - India allows 25/26 sugar exports of 1.5 million tons, but short - term exports may be difficult. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, with a loose supply. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The November USDA cotton supply - demand balance sheet is bearish. Globally, production increased significantly while demand increased slightly, and ending stocks rose. In China, new cotton listings bring short - term pressure, and downstream demand is weak overall, but some products support cotton prices. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The number of laying hens in production remains high, and the supply is loose. The market is in a seasonal off - peak period, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short positions in the near - month contracts can be gradually closed [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Soybean Oil: The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is adjusted to 32.276 billion pounds. Ending stocks are down 1.4% year - on - year. In China, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory inventories changed little [1]. - Palm Oil: Affected by export concerns, it will maintain low - level volatility. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan. Port inventories are expected to rise [1]. - Price and Spread Changes: The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and there were also changes in cross - period spreads and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - Futures Indicators: The main contract basis decreased by 120.00%, and the prices of pig 2605 and pig 2601 decreased by 0.45% and 0.68% respectively [3]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline of 400 yuan/ton in Guangdong [3]. - Spot Indicators: The daily slaughter volume increased slightly by 0.05%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased by 28.70% and 17.15% respectively [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry - Price Changes: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also had significant changes [8]. - Market Situation: The USDA's report was in line with expectations. US soybeans lack bullish factors, and China's tariff affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry - Corn: The price of corn 2601 decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 92.00%. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48% [10]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.64%, and the basis increased by 320.00% [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - Futures Market: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.22% and 0.11% respectively, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.67% [14]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning decreased by 1.06%, and that in Kunming increased by 0.54%. Imported sugar prices from Brazil increased [14]. - Industry Situation: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, but the national sales rate decreased. Industrial inventories in some regions increased, and imports increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - Futures Market: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 decreased slightly, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly [15]. - Spot Market: The price of Xinjiang cotton and the CC Index decreased slightly, while the difference between the CC Index and the FC Index increased [15]. - Industry Situation: Commercial and industrial inventories increased, imports increased, but textile exports decreased [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of egg 12 and egg 01 contracts decreased, and the spot price in the production area decreased by 0.82% [17]. - Related Indicators: Egg - to - feed ratio increased by 2.56%, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% [17]. - Market Situation: The number of laying hens in production is high, supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term [17][18].