原木期货日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]