广发期货《农产品》日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - Futures: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - Spot: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - Spot: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - Spot: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - Futures: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - Spot: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].