Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue at a low level. It is expected that the improvement in tin ore supply this year will be limited, and the supply side will remain strong. In the demand aspect, the tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - long strategy. Follow up on macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized and increased, and the futures price has fluctuated. There is a possibility of an arbitrage window. The market in November shows a double - decline in supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has stabilized, and the demand is weak. The futures price has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window has closed. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support strength, the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts, and whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday. In the macro aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent focus is on the US government shutdown and interest - rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, the supply of copper ore remains tight, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream customers for copper prices has gradually increased. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, with the main reference range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The logic of loose supply has basically materialized, and the subsequent supply - side pressure may be limited. The demand side has not shown unexpected performance, and domestic zinc ingots remain at a discount. With the increase in the LME warehousing expectation, the LME inventory has started to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile, with the main reference range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Alumina - The current alumina market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether the production cuts of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [12]. Aluminum - The aluminum price will be in a game between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals in the short term. Although the market performance is strong, be vigilant against the risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton. Focus on downstream start - up changes, inventory depletion rhythms, and overseas policy trends [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy will remain strong in the short term, with a firm cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to remain tight in the short term, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton. Follow up on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythms, and inventory depletion processes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak oscillation, with insufficient macro - level driving forces and no obvious improvement in the fundamental structure. The supply - side pressure from steel - mill production schedules and social inventories remains, and demand stimulation is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to adjust in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Nickel - The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, restricting the upward price space. The short - term drive is weak. The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation, with the main reference range of 116000 - 122000. Follow up on macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate market was strong, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The fundamentals provide support, and the news has stimulated bullish sentiment. The downstream demand is currently optimistic, and social inventory is being depleted. The short - term market may see intensified competition. Be cautious about chasing long positions at the current price, and wait for a pull - back before further observation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Spot Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.75% to 289900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 671.90% to - 87.50 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.62% to - 15173.89 yuan/ton [2]. - Monthly Fundamental Data: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons; in October, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons; in September, the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60% [2]. - Inventory Changes: The SHEF inventory increased by 4.44% to 6258 tons, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% to 7443 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9750 yuan/ton [5]. - Monthly Fundamental Data: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - Inventory Changes: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 11.31 million tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 54.60 million tons [5]. Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [6]. - Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 2.45% to 13.12 GW, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - Inventory Changes: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% to 26.70 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% to 18.42 GW [6]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.67% to 86510 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons; in September, electrolytic copper imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [7]. - Inventory Changes: The domestic social inventory decreased by 1.07% to 19.38 million tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 4.89% to 10.94 million tons [7]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40% to 22400 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased to - 4292 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons; in September, refined zinc imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [10]. - Inventory Changes: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.88% to 15.66 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 2.57% to 4.0 million tons [10]. Alumina - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28% to 21630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1982 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [12]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03% to 62.70 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% to 55.0 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46% to 21550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 3.57% to 1754 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [13]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.18% to 5.57 million tons, and the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan increased by 2.55% to 36817 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.40% to 12600 yuan/ton [15]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the stainless - steel net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [15]. - Inventory Changes: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.73% to 49.74 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.53% to 6.93 million tons [15]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.75% to 118700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 2.39% to - 194 dollars/ton [18]. - Cost of Electrowinning Nickel: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - matte nickel - produced electrowinning nickel increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: In China, refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports increased by 124.36% to 38164 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11% to 40573 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 2.22% to 257694 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.17% to 86150 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.21% to 83800 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [20]. - Inventory Changes: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [20].
广发期货《有色》日报-20251118
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-18 06:58