瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].