瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market continues to be under pressure and in a correction trend, with the London gold price once breaking below the significant $4000 mark. Uncertainty over the release of the US CPI data for October, combined with previous warnings from Fed officials about the risk of inflation rebounding, has significantly reduced the probability of rate cuts in December and January next year. The rebound of the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield, as well as the sharp correction in the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, have also intensified liquidity risks, posing resistance to the upward movement of gold and silver prices [2]. - In the short term, the correction in the US stock market may exacerbate market liquidity risks and cause short-term shocks to the gold price. The Fed's stance is more hawkish than expected, and the rate cut expectation is under pressure, which is a potential negative for the gold price. However, geopolitical risks may continue to provide price support, and the possibility of a significant decline in the gold market in the short term is relatively limited [2]. - In the medium to long term, the US debt pressure continues to intensify, and investors' confidence in the US dollar tends to weaken. Gold, as the preferred asset for hedging against US dollar credit, remains attractive. Coupled with the continuous intervention of central banks buying gold at low prices, the central price of gold may further increase [2]. - Technically, the short-term upward momentum has significantly weakened, and the $4000 and $50 integer marks for London gold and silver prices form key supports. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 900 - 950 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2602 contract should focus on the range of 11300 - 12000 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 918.52 yuan/gram, down 10.94 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 11699 yuan/kilogram, down 234 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 10851 hands to 90872 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 10886 hands to 322401 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 473 hands to 107875 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 12386 hands to 93067 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold and silver both decreased to 0, with a decrease of 90426 kilograms for gold and 569355 kilograms for silver [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 917.3 yuan/gram, down 14.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 11787 yuan/kilogram, down 190 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was -1.22 yuan/gram, down 3.21 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.57 tons to 1041.43 tons, while silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15218.42 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in the CFTC increased, with an increase of 339 contracts for gold to 266749 contracts and an increase of 738 contracts for silver to 52276 contracts. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global total demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - Option Market: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold decreased by 0.58% to 27.02%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.93% to 28.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold both increased by 2.17% to 28.93% [2]. 2. Industry News - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson believes that the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. He also reiterated that as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers need to be more cautious and proceed slowly. Fed Governor Waller believes that the Fed should cut rates again at the December meeting due to the weak US labor market and the harm of monetary policy to low - and middle - income consumers [2]. - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market shows "mixed signals", suggesting that the labor market may be slowing down [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December is 42.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 57.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 48.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 16.1% [2].