瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with only sporadic restocking. Affected by environmental protection factors, the compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased slightly, and the operating load is expected to increase slowly. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. [2] - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprise inventories rebounded. Considering large pending orders, enterprises are actively shipping, and short - term enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1680. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1662 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton (increased by 1), the main contract position is 250907 lots (decreased by 3842), the top 20 net position is - 34881, and the exchange warehouse receipts are 7183 (unchanged). [2] 现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui remained unchanged. The main contract basis is - 52 yuan/ton (increased by 20). FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 367.5 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively. [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 8.2 million tons (increased by 0.3 million tons, a 3.8% increase), and enterprise inventory is 148.36 million tons (decreased by 9.45 million tons, a 5.99% decrease). The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.08% (increased by 1.37%), the daily production is 196700 tons (increased by 13200 tons), the export volume is 137 million tons (increased by 57), and the monthly output is 5738670 tons (decreased by 190010 tons). [2] 下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 30.32% (decreased by 0.72%), the melamine operating rate is 57.48% (increased by 4.28%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 55 yuan/ton (decreased by 28), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 133 yuan/ton (decreased by 32). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 million tons (decreased by 65.15 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 29200 tons (increased by 2200 tons). [2] 行业消息 - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 million tons, a 5.99% decrease from last week. As of November 13, the port sample inventory was 8.2 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week. The production of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 1.65% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.37%. [2] 提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and operating rate on Thursday. [2]