瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of styrene is expected to maintain an upward trend, and there is an incremental expectation on the demand side, but the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability. The spot tight - balance state is expected to continue, slowly consuming the high inventory pressure. The international oil price has mixed long and short factors. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals have no improvement signs, and the basis of the December contract is in the neutral range. Technically, EB2512 should pay attention to the pressure around 6560 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 6465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan; the trading volume was 263,018 lots, a decrease of 99,891 lots; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 386,746 lots, a decrease of 9,200 lots; the net long - position volume was - 47,224 lots, an increase of 3,121 lots; the short - position volume was 433,970 lots, a decrease of 12,321 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,560 lots, a decrease of 229 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 6486 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 184,040 lots, a decrease of 43,582 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 803 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 813 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars; the mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North and East China were 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6690 yuan/ton (an increase of 45 yuan), 6485 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan) and 6535 yuan/ton (an increase of 35 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 736 dollars/ton (unchanged), CFR Southeast Asia was 726 dollars/ton (unchanged), CIF Northwest Europe was 645 dollars/ton (a decrease of 1 dollar), and FD US Gulf was 457 dollars/ton (a decrease of 6 dollars). The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 664.67 dollars/ton (unchanged), the FOB price in the US Gulf was 0 cents/gallon, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 693 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the market prices in South, East and North China were 5300 yuan/ton (unchanged), 5420 yuan/ton (an increase of 15 yuan) and 5235 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene production from November 7th to 13th was 344,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.45%; the plant capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%. The national styrene inventory was 189,431 tons, an increase of 9,399 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 148,300 tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 87,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR and styrene - butadiene rubber were 51.63% (a decrease of 2.32%), 71.8% (an increase of 0.2%), 55.4% (an increase of 1.9%), 36% (unchanged) and 74.76% (an increase of 2.52%) respectively. From November 7th to 13th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 7th to 13th, the overall production of Chinese styrene plants increased by 3.45% month - on - month to 344,400 tons, and the plant capacity utilization rate increased by 2.31% month - on - month to 69.25%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS and ABS decreased by 0.11% month - on - month to 260,600 tons. As of November 13th, the styrene plant inventory increased by 5.22% week - on - week to 189,400 tons; as of November 17th, the East China port inventory decreased by 15.16% week - on - week to 148,300 tons; as of November 10th, the South China port inventory decreased by 24.73% week - on - week to 21,000 tons [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of November 12th, the non - integrated profit was - 459 yuan/ton; as of November 13th, the styrene integrated profit was 15.31 yuan/ton. The inventories in East China and Hainan ports maintained a destocking trend, but the visible inventory was still high. The non - integrated profit was deeply in the red, and the integrated profit recovered to a small profit level. There are no new shutdown devices in the short term, and a device in East China is expected to restart this week, so the styrene supply is expected to continue to rise. The maintenance devices of downstream EPS, PS and ABS have resumed operation, and the newly put - into - production devices have increased production, so there is an incremental expectation on the demand side. However, the terminal demand has no improvement signal, which may limit the growth space and sustainability [2]