瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to have a volatile trend. The supply side continues to exert pressure, while the domestic demand shows marginal improvement [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price is 13,395 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price is 19,680 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 80,695 hands, up 3,624 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 32 hands, down 134 hands [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest is 564,995 hands, down 6,347 hands; cotton yarn main - contract open interest is 21,554 hands, down 657 hands [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,386 sheets, down 10 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 28 sheets, unchanged [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,789 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,844 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,883 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2]. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,099 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,362 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,751 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The import cotton profit is 918 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, down 46,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth is 2.8 billion meters, up 100 million meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 5.09%, down 10.09%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 5.16%, down 10.01% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.54%, down 1.17%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.23%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of the week of November 14, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days is 27 days [2]. - ICE cotton futures hit an eight - month low on Monday. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.28 cents, or 0.43%, at 64.53 cents per pound [2]. Supply - demand Analysis - Supply side: New cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and the acquisition is nearly over. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. With the release of import quotas, the shipment of high - grade new cotton from Brazil has accelerated, and the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments [2]. - Demand side: In October, China's textile and clothing exports showed a double - decline trend in year - on - year and month - on - month terms, with a more significant decline in clothing exports. However, there are signs of marginal improvement in domestic retail demand [2].