美银：全球基金经理调查- 现金不足，资本开支充裕，降息需求迫切-Global Fund Manager Survey-Cash poor, capex rich, rate cut needy

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, with a net 34% overweight in global stocks, the highest since February 2025 [3][132]. Core Insights - Investors are optimistic about a soft landing for the economy, with 53% expecting this outcome, while global growth expectations have turned positive for the first time since December 2024 [2][19][23]. - The most crowded trade is "long Magnificent 7," with 54% of investors participating, while the AI bubble is seen as the biggest tail risk by 45% of respondents [3][28][31]. - The report highlights a significant shift in asset allocation, with increased exposure to emerging markets, healthcare, and commodities, while UK stocks and consumer discretionary sectors saw the largest declines in allocation [4][51][56]. Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 53% of investors expect a soft landing, 37% foresee no landing, and only 6% predict a hard landing [17][19]. - Global growth expectations have turned positive, with a net 3% of investors anticipating stronger economic conditions [23][105]. Asset Allocation - The report shows a net 17% overweight in commodities, the highest allocation since September 2022 [51][143]. - There has been a record decline in allocation to consumer discretionary stocks, now at a net 23% underweight [56]. Investor Sentiment - The average cash level among investors dropped to 3.7%, indicating a "sell signal" as historically low cash levels have preceded declines in stock prices [14][16]. - The Bull & Bear Indicator remains neutral at 6.3, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [99]. Future Expectations - 37% of investors expect MSCI Emerging Markets to outperform in 2026, while 30% anticipate the Japanese yen to be the best-performing currency [68][71]. - The most bullish catalyst for 2026 is widespread AI productivity gains, as indicated by 43% of respondents [72][75].