黑色产业链日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price and Spread Data: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - Ratio Data: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - Price Data: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - Fundamental Data: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - Market Analysis: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Price Data: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - Price Data: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - Market Analysis: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - Price and Sales Data: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].