贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Outlook: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - Market Data: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - Spot Market: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - Futures Market: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - Import and Processing: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - Scrap - to - Refined Spread: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - Futures Prices: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - Price Spreads: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - Spot Market: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - Futures Prices: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - Spot Market: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - Futures Market: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - Downstream Market: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - Futures Market: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Futures Prices: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - Spot Market: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - Polysilicon and Downstream Products: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].