建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weak cost support and a continuously loose supply - demand situation, the overall price of polyolefins is expected to remain under pressure. Although the relatively low absolute price may stimulate periodic replenishment demand, providing weak support to the market, the price is likely to oscillate within the bottom range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market Performance: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts (such as plastic 2601, plastic 2605, etc.) are presented. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 6843 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.25%), and PP2601 closed at 6467 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.35%) [3][4]. - Supply - Demand Situation: In October, the Guangxi Petrochemical plant was successfully put into production. There are no new production plans in November. Some maintenance plants will restart, and the weekly output has increased as expected. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and downstream buyers have returned to purchasing based on rigid demand after restocking at low prices, which cannot effectively drive up prices [4]. - Cost Factor: EIA has raised the inventory accumulation forecast for the fourth quarter. Although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year, it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation, and the cost support for plastics and chemicals is weak [4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On November 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 720,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons (12.50%) from the previous working day, compared with 700,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - Market Prices: PE market prices showed partial fluctuations. The prices of LLDPE in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6930 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 5760 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The mainstream prices of PP in North China, East China, and South China were in the ranges of 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6340 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, but specific data values are not provided in the text [9][12][13].