建信期货豆粕日报-20251118

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 18, 2025 [2] - Research team: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - Contract performance: - For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3081, the opening price was 3090, the highest price was 3107, the lowest price was 3024, the closing price was 3043, with a decline of 38 and a drop - rate of 1.23%. The trading volume was 1396215, the open interest was 1661229, and the open interest change was - 38917 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3031, the opening price was 3039, the highest price was 3050, the lowest price was 2980, the closing price was 3003, with a decline of 28 and a drop - rate of 0.92%. The trading volume was 114304, the open interest was 479925, and the open interest change was 14832 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2841, the opening price was 2850, the highest price was 2858, the lowest price was 2795, the closing price was 2814, with a decline of 27 and a drop - rate of 0.95%. The trading volume was 396874, the open interest was 1147563, and the open interest change was 35521 [6]. - External market situation: The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract at 1125 cents. The USDA released the November monthly supply - demand report early on Saturday, which adjusted the production and crushing of the previous year. The ending inventory for the 24/25 season decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 season, the yield per acre was adjusted down from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export volume was further adjusted down by 50 million bushels to 1.635 billion bushels [6]. - Market impact: The ending inventory of 290 million bushels given in this report is lower than the 300 million bushels in September but higher than market expectations. The export signal is not positive, so CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal was weak today due to the decline in the external market. The future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6]. Group 3: Industry News - US 2025/26 soybean data: The expected yield per acre in November was 53 bushels/acre, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 bushels/acre compared to September; the expected production was 4.253 billion bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 48 million bushels; the expected crushing volume was 2.555 billion bushels, the same as in September; the expected export volume was 1.635 billion bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 50 million bushels; the expected ending inventory was 290 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 10 million bushels [7][8]. - Global 2025/26 soybean meal data: The expected production was 286.418 million tons, a downward revision of 1.32 million tons; the expected ending inventory was 18.271 million tons, an upward revision of 117,000 tons; the expected export volume was 81.548 million tons, a downward revision of 620,000 tons. Argentina's expected export volume was 29 million tons, a downward revision of 1.1 million tons; Brazil's expected export volume was 24 million tons, an upward revision of 800,000 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][14][16]