2026年全球经济展望：在混沌中构建秩序

Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is projected at 3.2% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, an improvement from earlier forecasts of 2.8% and 3.0% respectively[3] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been downgraded by nearly 0.2 percentage points compared to October 2024, indicating a phase of moderate growth intertwined with high uncertainty[3] Structural Changes - The global economy is experiencing a shift from a linear trajectory to a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability[2] - External shocks, such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have disrupted the global order, leading to a divergence in economic cycles among major economies[3] Market Sensitivity - The sensitivity of the economic system to disturbances has significantly increased, resulting in heightened instability yet retaining resilience[2] - Financial markets are reacting more rapidly to policy signals, creating a feedback loop that can amplify economic fluctuations[5] Policy Implications - Fiscal policy is expected to take precedence over monetary policy in driving economic growth, as high debt levels limit the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments[13] - The anticipated monetary policy for the U.S. is to maintain a neutral rate around 3.00% to 3.25% by the end of 2026, with inflation projected at 2.9%[26] Regional Insights - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at 1.8% in 2026, with inflation remaining a concern due to external cost pressures[20] - The Eurozone is projected to grow at approximately 1.1% in 2026, with inflation expected to stabilize around 1.8%[20] - Japan's growth is forecasted at 0.7% for 2026, with inflation anticipated to be around 1.8%[26] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to maintain relatively robust growth, supported by service sector expansion and domestic consumption recovery[24] - However, these markets face challenges from high external financing costs and potential geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains[24]