油脂油料早报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, behind last year's 98% and the five - year average of 96% [1]. - Abiove expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be a record 177.7 million tons, previously estimated at 178.5 million tons and higher than last year's 172.1 million tons [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crushing volume is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than last year's 58.5 million tons [1]. - Brazil's 2026 soybean exports are expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 2025's 109 million tons [1]. - Brazil's 2026 soybean oil production will reach a record 12.15 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, up from about 11.7 million tons in 2025 [1]. - Brazil's 2026 soybean oil imports are expected to reach an unprecedented 125,000 tons, a 25% increase from 2025 [1]. - Brazil's 2026 soybean oil exports are expected to reach an unprecedented 1.2 million tons, compared to 1 million tons in 2025 [1]. - Brazil's 2026 soybean meal production is expected to reach a record 46.6 million tons, compared to 45.1 million tons in 2025; its 2026 soybean meal exports will reach a record 24.6 million tons, compared to 23.6 million tons in 2025 [1]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - From the start of the 2025/26 season (July) to November 16, the EU's palm oil imports were 1.08 million tons, compared to 1.32 million tons in the same period last year [1]. 3. Other Summaries Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from November 12 - 18, 2025 are provided, including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2].