芳烃橡胶早报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA partial device maintenance leads to a decline in start - up rate, polyester load drops, inventory accumulates, basis is weak, and spot processing fees improve slightly. With TA remaining in high - maintenance status, downstream demand not under obvious pressure, and India revoking BIS certification, the inventory accumulation rate is not high, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production has partial maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up rate drops, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and coal - based efficiency is low. Short - term EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the further decline space of valuation may be limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to weaken [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, start - up rate remains at 97.5%, sales are weak, and inventory accumulates. Although the efficiency and start - up rate of polyester yarn have no obvious improvement, staple fiber exports maintain high growth, and there are opportunities for expanding processing fees and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Summaries by Product PTA - Price Changes: From November 12 to 18, crude oil price increased by 0.7, naphtha decreased by 2, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 4, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 5, POY 150D/48F decreased by 5. Naphtha cracking spread remained unchanged, PX processing margin decreased by 2, PTA processing margin increased by 15, and polyester gross profit increased by 9 [2]. - Device Changes: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [2]. - Market Outlook: TA will maintain a high - maintenance status. Downstream demand, especially for filaments and staple fibers, is not under obvious pressure. With India revoking BIS certification, the inventory accumulation rate is not high, and there are opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - Price Changes: From November 12 to 18, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 4, MEG inner - market price decreased by 28, MEG East China price decreased by 28, MEG far - month price decreased by 28. MEG coal - based profit decreased by 28, and MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained unchanged [2]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device are under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarts [2]. - Market Outlook: Short - term EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue. Considering that the efficiency is at a low level after coal price rises, there may be partial reduction in supply. The long - term pattern is expected to weaken [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From November 12 to 18, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 25, and other prices remained unchanged. The profit of pure polyester yarn increased by 25, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 10, while the difference between viscose and polyester staple fiber increased by 25 [2]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information is provided [2]. - Market Outlook: Although the efficiency and start - up rate of polyester yarn have no obvious improvement, staple fiber exports maintain high growth. There are opportunities for expanding processing fees and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From November 12 to 18, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained unchanged, US - dollar Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5, RMB mixed rubber decreased by 30, Shanghai whole - milk rubber increased by 200, and Shanghai 3L rubber increased by 100. Other prices also had corresponding changes [5]. - Market Outlook: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 12 to 18, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained unchanged, pure benzene (CFR China) price increased by 11, pure benzene (East China) price decreased by 75, and other prices also had corresponding changes. Styrene domestic profit increased by 15, and EPS domestic profit decreased by 5 [8].