天胶早报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoint - The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4] - The basis is -445 with a spot price of 14,850, showing a bearish signal [4] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year [4] - The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upwards, showing a bullish signal [4] - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4] Fundamental Data Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on November 18 [8] - The basis strengthened on November 18 [35] Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14] - The inventory in Qingdao has rebounded recently [17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally rebounded [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports reached a new high in the same period [32] Multi - Empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high [6] - Spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - Domestic anti - involution [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [6] - Domestic economic indicators are bearish [6] - There are trade frictions [6]