Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View - The report anticipates that the SHFE zinc contract ZN2512 will experience a weakening trend with oscillations. The previous trading day saw SHFE zinc decline with shrinking trading volume and reduced positions from both long and short sides, with more short - side exits. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators like KDJ are falling, and the trend indicator shows a decrease in bullish power and an increase in bearish power, though bulls still hold a slight edge [2][22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1507 million tons and consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons and consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons [2]. - The basis is +170 with the spot price at 22,480, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - On November 18, LME zinc inventories increased by 3,550 tons to 43,525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 74 tons to 76,787 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, SHFE zinc showed an oscillating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average was upward, also a neutral sign [2]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (November 18) - For the zinc contract 2512, the previous settlement was 22,440, the opening price was 22,460, the high was 22,465, the low was 22,265, the closing price was 22,310, and the settlement reference price was 22,350, with a decline of 130 and 90 respectively. The trading volume was 63,466 lots, and the trading value was 1.0445961 billion yuan. The open interest was 82,326 lots, a decrease of 9,124 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (November 18) - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 100 US dollars/dry ton, both unchanged [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 22,430 - 22,530 yuan/ton, with an average of 22,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,170 - 22,270 yuan/ton, averaging 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,260 - 22,360 yuan/ton, averaging 22,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; and in Zhejiang, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, averaging 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 6 - 17, 2025) - On November 17, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.62 million tons. Compared with November 10, it increased by 4,000 tons, and compared with November 13, it increased by 13,000 tons [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (November 18) - In Shanghai, the total warrants were 0 tons with no change. In Guangdong, the total was 41,061 tons, a decrease of 125 tons. In Jiangsu, it was 0 tons with no change. In Zhejiang, it was 0 tons with no change. In Tianjin, it was 35,726 tons, an increase of 51 tons. The overall SHFE zinc warrants were 76,787 tons, a decrease of 74 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (November 18) - There were multiple locations with varying inventory changes. For example, one location had a previous inventory of 39,975 tons, an inflow of 3,600 tons, and an ending inventory of 43,525 tons, an increase of 3,550 tons [9]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Prices (November 18) - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in various regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and others showed a decline of 60 yuan/ton [11]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices (November 18) - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Muchuan Zhizhi, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 80 yuan/ton [14]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The planned production value in October was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The production was 2.88% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production for November was 522,300 tons [17]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (November 18) - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade ore in different regions ranged from 2,400 to 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade ore was 90 - 110 US dollars/dry ton [19]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (November 18) - For the contract zn2512, in terms of trading volume, Dongzheng Futures ranked first with 24,837 lots, a decrease of 113 lots. In terms of long positions, Dongzheng Futures ranked first with 7,001 lots, a decrease of 1,555 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 15,106 lots, a decrease of 2,139 lots [20].
沪锌期货早报-20251119
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-19 02:12