贵金属早报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - "Small Non - farm Payrolls" ADP weekly employment decreased, leading to a halt in the decline of gold and silver prices and a subsequent rebound. US stocks tumbled, and risk appetite continued to cool. However, with the continuous decline in small non - farm data, gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The Fed members' hawkish stances dampened market risk appetite, and as employment data was gradually announced, gold and silver prices rebounded [4][6]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: "Small Non - farm Payrolls" ADP weekly employment decreased, and gold prices stopped falling and rebounded. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, as did the three major European stock indexes. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 2.52 basis points to 4.113%. The US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.59, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1108. COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, "Small Non - farm Payrolls" ADP weekly employment decreased, and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The three major US stock indexes and the three major European stock indexes closed down. US bond yields fell collectively, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Hints - Gold: The basis of gold is - 2.11, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net long position decreased, but the main position is still net long, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 9, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net long position increased, which is bullish [7]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's September core machinery orders, October imports, exports, and merchandise trade balance. - 08:55: Speech by Lorie Logan, President of the Dallas Fed. - Time TBD: The Japanese Ministry of Finance will auction 800 billion yen of 20 - year government bonds and the 2025 Data Storage Industry Conference. - 15:00: UK's October CPI. - 18:00: Eurozone's October CPI final value. - 21:30: US August trade balance, October new housing starts, and building permits. - 23:00: Fed Governor Milan talks about bank supervision. - 01:45 the next day: Speech by Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed (2027 FOMC voter), on the economic outlook. - 03:00 the next day: The Fed releases the minutes of the FOMC monetary policy meeting, and New York Fed President Williams gives a welcome speech [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, and it is difficult for the gold price to fall. Recently, the three main factors of the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [11]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include global turmoil, the existence of a significant "Shadow Fed" with rate - cut expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to a resurgence of inflation, and the support of the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices. Bearish factors include the increasing expectation of a halt to rate cuts, significant differences within the Fed, the European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations, the resurgence of risk aversion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [15][16]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 63 to 164,573 on November 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.04% compared to the previous day. The short position increased by 1,215 to 65,874, an increase of 1.88%. The net long position decreased by 1,278 to 98,699, a decrease of 1.28% [32]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 13,728 to 351,583 on November 18, 2025, a decrease of 3.76% compared to the previous day. The short position increased by 9,119 to 265,754, an increase of 3.55%. The net long position decreased by 22,847 to 85,829, a decrease of 21.02% [34].