大越期货尿素早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand has weakened in the short term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both low year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. The overall supply of urea in China still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -52, and the premium/discount ratio is -3.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The futures market of the urea main contract shows moderately weak industrial demand, weakening agricultural demand, and improved exports compared to the previous period, which boosts the market sentiment. The overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Improvement in exports [5]. - Negative Factors: Excess supply in the domestic market and the commissioning of new production capacities [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1610 (+20), the Shandong spot price is 1610 (+20), the Henan spot price is 1610 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the UR01 contract is 1662 (unchanged), the price of the UR05 contract is 1736 (-1), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (-8). The basis of the UR01 contract is -52 (+20) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.566 million tons (-92,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.484 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 82,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, 13.5% in 2024, and an expected 11.0% in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes [9].