大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251119

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The fundamentals of both are generally bearish due to oversupply, but there are also some bullish factors such as oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing [4][5][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply on November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but demand in some areas is starting to decline, and other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 6900 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 115, with a premium ratio of 1.7%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 579,000 tons (+39,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the continuation of the peak demand season for agricultural films with some areas seeing a decline in demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the Sino-US talks reaching a phased easing. Bearish factors include weaker year-on-year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is not optimistic, and the crude oil market adjustment has led to falling oil prices. The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing its end, while pipe demand is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 6460 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 68, with a premium ratio of 1.1%, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 620,000 tons (+20,000 tons), which is bearish [6] - Disk: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to oversupply, the approaching end of the peak season for plastic weaving, the improvement in pipe demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] - Likely Factors: Similar to LLDPE, bullish factors include oil price rebounds and Sino-US relations easing, while bearish factors include weaker demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6900 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6785 (-58), and the basis is 115 (+58). The warehouse receipt is 12,017 (unchanged) [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6460 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 6392 (-75), and the basis is 68 (+75). The warehouse receipt is 14,621 (unchanged) [8] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,319,500 tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4,906,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]