大越期货菜粕早报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season for rapeseed meal, low inventory levels support the market. Influenced by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations, the market will remain range - bound in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range oscillation. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, and the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term outlook is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports, affecting domestic supply. The initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and potential geopolitical risks support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The initial anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of 109, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards, showing a neutral trend. - Trading Data: From November 10th to 18th, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 17.99 - 31.41 tons, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also had minor fluctuations [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main players has increased, but the capital has flowed out, showing a bullish signal [9].