LPG早报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG main contract shows a relatively strong performance. The domestic chemical market remains firm, and there are expectations of a peak - season uptick in the civil gas sector, but the market valuation is on the high side. The international propane market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to weather conditions and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4] 3. Summary According to the Report Content 3.1 Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas on Tuesday, prices in East China were 4335 (-29), in Shandong 4380 (-20), and in South China 4345 (-45). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4590 (-80). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-14) and a 12 - 01 month - spread of 81 (-8). FEI was 510.26 (+7.26) and CP was 492.18 (+9.18) dollars per ton [4] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract was on a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month - spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), South China at 4460 (+10), and ether - post - carbon - four at 4630 (+130). The overseas paper - based futures rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month - spread strengthened, and the domestic - overseas price difference weakened. The PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and the PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The East China propane arrival discount was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight rate weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level for the year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival of goods was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarting and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei shutting down for maintenance [4]