大越期货油脂早报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% MoM to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% MoM to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% MoM to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current monthly export data of Malaysian palm oil shows a 4% MoM increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8480, with a basis of 160, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons MoM and 11.7% YoY [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 8600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but palm oil will enter the production - increase season, leading to an increase in supply [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8740, with a basis of 32, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and down 34.1% YoY [3] - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, with an increase in palm oil supply as it enters the production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10240, with a basis of 366, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons MoM and 3.2% YoY [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4] Recent利多and利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Soybean Oil Inventory: Relevant information about soybean oil inventory is provided [6] - Soybean Meal Inventory: Information on soybean meal inventory [8] - Soybean Pressing by Oil Mills: Details about oil mills' soybean pressing [10] - Palm Oil Inventory: Information on palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: Details about rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed Inventory: Information on rapeseed inventory [21] - Total Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory: Details about the total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil: Information on the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] - Apparent Consumption of Soybean Meal: Details about the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14]