大越期货棉花早报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The export data of textile and clothing in October was poor. Although a temporary agreement was reached in the Sino-US negotiations and the subsequent export tariffs to the US were reduced by 10% compared to the previous period, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. Zhengmian is short-term bearish and oscillating downward, but with cost support, the downward space is limited. Currently, it is an opportunity for medium and long-term long orders to layout far-month contracts on dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC November report, the production in the 25/26 season is 25.4 million tons, and the consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA November report shows that the production in the 25/26 season is 26.145 million tons, the consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. In October, the export of textile and clothing was $22.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%. In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; and imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 25/26 season, the production is 6.6 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,789 yuan, and the basis is 1,394 yuan (for the 01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in November of the 25/26 season to be 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, and the net short position is increasing, with the main trend being bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.74 million tons; the total consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 315,000 tons [13]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [16]. - China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.6 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons [5][17]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.