沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term, with an expected oversupply pattern. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, testing the support strength of the previous low [2]. - 不锈钢: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals, and the price is expected to be under pressure with a weak oscillation at a low level [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Nickel Futures and Spot Prices: On November 18, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 114,840 yuan, down 1,910 yuan from the previous day; LME nickel was 14,645, down 30. SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 116,950 yuan, down 1,750 yuan [12]. - Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices: On November 18, the price of stainless steel main contract was 12,365 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. The average price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in different regions decreased to varying degrees [12]. Inventory Conditions - Nickel Inventory: As of November 18, LME nickel inventory was 257,832, an increase of 138; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 35,424, a decrease of 402. The total inventory was 293,256, a decrease of 264 [15]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: As of November 14, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.071 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. As of November 18, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 68,795, a decrease of 494 [18][19]. Cost Factors - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: On November 18, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of high - nickel ferronickel was 899.5 yuan/nickel point, down 3 yuan [22]. - Stainless Steel Production Costs: The traditional production cost was 12,578 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 12,870 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,117 yuan [24]. - Nickel Import Cost: The calculated import price was 117,364 yuan/ton [27].