大越期货玻璃早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit recovery being sluggish, supply at a historically low level, downstream deep - processing orders being weak, real - estate terminal demand being poor, and inventory at a high level. It is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - Due to the "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, but currently, glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, downstream periodic restocking has ended, and glass factory inventories have increased [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1029 yuan/ton to 1017 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.17%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass dropped from 1028 yuan/ton to 1016 yuan/ton, also a 1.17% decline. The main basis remained unchanged at - 1 yuan/ton [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [10]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific content on cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit is provided. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass is 159,100 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [21][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The real - estate terminal demand for glass is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [40]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repairs, resulting in production losses [3]. - Negative Factors: The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, downstream periodic restocking has ended, and glass factory inventories have increased. Also, real - estate terminal demand is weak, deep - processing industry capital collection is not good, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [3][4].