大越期货沥青期货早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - Basis: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - Market: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - Expectation: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - 开工率: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - Import and Export Situation: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - Downstream Demand: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - Asphalt 开工率: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].