大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 27,000 tons next month, a 22.73% increase [8][10]. - From the demand side, last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - From the cost side, the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 87,553 yuan/ton, a 2.42% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 91,635 yuan/ton, a 2.85% daily increase, with a loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 92,020 - 95,020 [10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [14]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's production was 21,545 tons, up 0.05% week - on - week. October 2025 production was 92,260 tons, predicted next - month production is 92,080 tons (down 0.19%). October import was 22,000 tons, predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons (up 22.73%) [8][10]. - Demand: Last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 104,738 tons (down 0.92%), ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 19,211 tons (down 1.74%). Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8]. - Cost: Purchased lithium spodumene concentrate cost is 87,553 yuan/ton (up 2.42% daily), loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. Purchased lithium mica cost is 91,635 yuan/ton (up 2.85% daily), loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. Salt lake end cost is 31,477 yuan/ton, with strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: On November 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6,120 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The overall inventory was 120,472 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [11]. - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the high and limited - decline supply at the ore/salt lake end [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: The futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1,680 yuan (-1.76%). The basis of various contracts increased, with the 01 contract basis increasing by 2,930 yuan (-32.38%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 342 lots (-1.27%). The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 32 US dollars/ton (3.13%), and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) increased by 125 yuan/ton (5.34%) [17]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 2,071 yuan/ton (2.42%), and the monthly processing cost decreased by 170 yuan/ton (-0.83%). The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [19]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.88%, and the monthly production increased by 19,800 tons (6.35%). The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 10.54%, and the monthly export increased by 1,091,564 kilograms (54.57%) [19].