大越期货甲醇早报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for methanol currently lacks highlights, and supply pressure persists. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate this week. The inland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, the methanol price is expected to be weak and volatile, with MA2601 oscillating between 2000 - 2065 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol show that the inland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: Some domestic and Iranian devices have reduced production or are shut down, some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production, and some northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, MTBE operation has declined, coal - to - methanol has a profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2025 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2030 yuan/ton [5][8]. - Inventory: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - Market Price Changes: The spot prices of methanol in most domestic regions have declined to varying degrees this week. The CFR price of imported methanol and the price of methanol in Southeast Asia have also decreased [8][9][24]. - Production Profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol has remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has decreased. The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to varying degrees, and the MTO production profit has increased [20][35][38][43][48]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58]. - Overseas Devices: Some Iranian and other overseas methanol devices are in the process of restarting, operation, or maintenance, such as ZPC in Iran and QAFAC in Qatar [59]. - MTO Devices: Some MTO devices in Northwest and other regions are operating stably, while some are in a state of parking or load reduction, such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Gansu Huating [60].