《黑色》日报-20251119

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Steel prices are stable, but the basis is weakening. Coke coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore prices are rising. The overall demand for five major steel products is declining, and steel mills are reducing production. However, the daily average hot metal production has increased, which is expected to lead to a rebound in the output of finished steel products. In terms of different varieties, the production and inventory of rebar are decreasing, with relatively few contradictions. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are basically balanced, but the inventory is at a high level and has not been cleared, so the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. The port inventory of iron ore is continuously accumulating, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is becoming more abundant, so it is not recommended to go long. On a single side, the apparent demand for steel is falling, and the inventory has not been cleared, so a short position can be considered [1]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions have shown different degrees of change. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts and hot-rolled coils 05, 10, and 01 contracts have all declined. The profit margins of steel products in different regions and production processes have also changed, with some showing an increase and some a decrease [1]. - Cost and Profit: The prices of steel billets and slab billets remain unchanged. The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu is stable, while the cost of converter rebar has decreased. The profit margins of hot-rolled coils in different regions have increased to varying degrees [1]. - Production: The daily average hot metal production has increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a rise of 1.1%. The production of five major steel products has decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a decline of 2.6%. The production of rebar has decreased by 8.5 to 200.0, a decline of 4.1%, including a 4.0% decrease in electric furnace production and a 4.1% decrease in converter production. The production of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a decline of 1.4% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar has decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a decline of 2.8%. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has remained basically unchanged [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume has decreased by 3.7 to 9.6, a decline of 27.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar has decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a decline of 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a decline of 0.2% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The iron ore futures continued to rebound yesterday. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has increased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. However, based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future is expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has slightly declined, the hot metal production has increased, and the replenishment demand of steel mills has increased. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the production and inventory are continuing to decline seasonally, the apparent demand is decreasing, and the demand is weakening. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. The port clearance volume has increased, and the equity ore inventory of steel mills has risen. Looking forward, although the hot metal production has increased this week, there is limited room for further increase. The current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills are not sufficient to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high-level oscillating trend, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended for single-side trading [5]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The basis of iron ore 01 contract for different varieties has decreased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.0 to 23.5, a decline of 4.1%. The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 1.5 to -58.0, a decline of 2.7%. The 1 - 5 spread has increased by 2.5 to 34.5, an increase of 7.8% [5]. - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a decline of 17.2%. The global weekly shipment volume has increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, an increase of 14.6%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - Demand: The weekly average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports has increased by 6.0 to 327.0, an increase of 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [5]. - Inventory: The weekly port inventory at 45 ports has decreased slightly by 0.1% to 15114.45. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remain unchanged at 21.0 days [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures both showed a weak downward trend. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has shown signs of loosening, and the auction price has reached the highest level of the year, providing cost support for coke. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been fully implemented, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term, but mainstream coking enterprises still have plans for further price increases. On the supply side, the production of some停产 coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai is expected to increase, but the production recovery is limited. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased significantly since November, and the inventory at the port has continued to rise. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted, the hot metal production has increased from a low level, the steel price has oscillated weakly, and the profit of steel mills has decreased, which has a certain suppression effect on the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower than the middle level, with a tight supply - demand situation for coke and passive destocking by downstream enterprises. For coking coal, the inventory of coking enterprises and ports has decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills has increased, and the overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with an oscillating range for coke between 1600 - 1750 and for coking coal between 1100 - 1250, and to wait and see for the time being [8]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts have decreased to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts of coke and coking coal have also changed. The coking profit of Steel Union (weekly) and the profit of sample coal mines (weekly) have shown different trends [8]. - Supply: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, an increase of 0.2%. The production of raw coal and clean coal has increased to varying degrees [8]. - Demand: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The demand for coke is related to the production of hot metal, and the production of coke has also shown a certain change [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory of coke has decreased by 7.7 to 879.4, a decline of 0.9%. The inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports has all decreased to varying degrees. The inventory of coking coal has also changed, with the inventory of some parties increasing and some decreasing [8]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke has decreased by 1.8 to -5.5 [8].