《有色》日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue at a low level. The improvement in tin ore supply is expected to be limited this year, with the supply side remaining strong. - In the demand side, tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. - Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - buying strategy. Follow up on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [5]. Zinc - The fundamentals change little, with the Shanghai zinc market oscillating. The supply - loosening logic has basically materialized, and the supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. - The demand side shows no unexpected performance. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. - The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a squeeze on LME is alleviated. In the future, the fundamentals may provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc, and it may oscillate in the short term [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a supply - demand surplus, with the price in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the production - cut trends of high - cost enterprises. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [9]. Copper - The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price oscillates. The macro - situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent interest - rate cut expectation is unclear. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream has a high psychological price limit for copper. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts following the aluminum price. The cost - side support is significant, and the supply is restricted by raw materials. - The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak. In the short term, the ADC12 price will remain strong, and follow up on changes in raw material supply and demand [12]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market breaks downward, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Funds are using nickel for short - hedging. - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high at low prices, but the overall fundamentals improve slightly, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with few inquiries and limited transactions. The macro - drive is insufficient, and the supply - side pressure remains, while the demand is weak. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and follow up on steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillates at a relatively high level. The weekly production shows a small increase, and the downstream demand is optimistic, with social inventory decreasing. - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and follow up on the resumption of production by large enterprises and changes in demand [18]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is partially reduced, and the futures price oscillates. If the silicone industry reduces production, the inventory - accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. - The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the price fluctuating between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, but the demand is weak, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory - accumulation expectations in each link. - The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and pay attention to the support from the spot market and the digestion of warehouse receipts [21]. Summary by Directory Tin - Price and Spread: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin both decreased by - 0.17%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 14.29%. The import loss decreased by 3.34%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - Fundamental Data: In September, the import of tin ore decreased by - 15.13%. In October, the production of SMM refined tin increased by 53.09%, and the average operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - Inventory: The SHEF inventory weekly increased by 4.44%, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% [2]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by - 0.36%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads increased [7]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of refined zinc increased by 2.85%. In September, the import decreased by - 11.61%, and the export increased by 696.78%. The operating rates of some processing industries changed slightly [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by - 1.88%, and the LME inventory increased by 8.88% [7]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by - 0.79%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [9]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39%, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52%. The import and export of electrolytic aluminum also increased [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03%, and the LME inventory decreased by - 0.39% [9]. Copper - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by - 0.58%, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by - 16.58%. The import loss decreased [10]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased by - 2.62%, and in September, the import increased by 26.50%. The operating rates of copper rod production increased [10]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased by - 1.07%, and the LME inventory increased by 3.27% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by - 0.46%, and some refined - scrap spreads decreased [12]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the export decreased [12]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 0.18%, and the daily inventories in some regions changed slightly [12]. Nickel - Price and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by - 1.47%, and the import loss decreased. The cost of some production methods of electrowon nickel changed [14]. - Supply and Inventory: The production of refined nickel in China increased by 0.84%, and the import increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11%, and the social inventory increased by 8.10% [14]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40%, and the price of some raw materials decreased slightly. Some monthly spreads changed [15]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38%, and in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. The import of stainless steel increased, and the export decreased [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.73%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.53% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.45%, and the price of some lithium - related raw materials increased [18]. - Fundamental Data: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70%. The import decreased by - 10.30%, and the export decreased by - 59.12% [18]. - Inventory: In October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by - 10.90%, and the downstream inventory decreased by - 13.50% [18]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The price of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - Fundamental Data: The national production of industrial silicon increased by 7.46%, and the production in some regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased slightly, and the production of polysilicon increased [20]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by - 1.09%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by - 1.41% [20]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased by - 0.85%. Some monthly spreads increased [21]. - Fundamental Data: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by - 0.74%, and the monthly production increased by 3.08%. The import increased, and the export and net - export decreased [21]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 5.14% [21].