原木期货日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downward. The supply-side arrival volume continues to recover, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 785, 794, and 808 yuan/cubic meter respectively, down 0.51%, 0.63%, and 0.19% from the previous day. The prices of some specifications of radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port decreased, with the largest decline of 3.41% for large radiata pine in Rizhao Port. The prices of radiata pine 4m medium A and spruce 11.8m in the outer market remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 18, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was 7.113 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 810.99 yuan, up 0.91 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 17.39% from the previous month [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 2.04% and 1.46% respectively [1][2] Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in China and Shandong decreased by 1% and 3% respectively, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 7% [1][2] Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 3 ships from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 48% [2]