广发期货日评-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic stock index futures show strong resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the report release, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with common short - term phased corrections and rebounds and limited downside risks. [3] - The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond hits resistance when dropping to around 1.8%. In the short term, lacking further drivers, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. [3] - The gold price seeks to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan) after a correction. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options. The silver price follows gold, with support around $49 (11800 yuan), and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. [3] - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) fluctuates and declines, with a short - term upward trend expected. [3] - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations, inventory conditions, and market factors. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - Stock Index Futures: The entire stock index series experiences a correction, while the technology sector rises against the trend. It is recommended to mainly wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bull put spread of put options can be arranged. [3] - Treasury Bonds: The money market tightens in the short term, and the bond market fluctuates narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.8 - 116.7, and an interval trading strategy is recommended. [3] - Precious Metals: The market liquidity is tight, and the US stocks decline continuously. Precious metals hit the bottom and rebound during the session. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold. Silver is recommended to try long positions on dips. [3] Black - Steel: There is a differentiation in the inventory of iron and carbon elements. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. [3] - Iron Ore: Shipments increase, arrivals decrease, port stocks rise, and pig iron production rebounds. The iron ore price fluctuates, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with a reference interval of 750 - 800. [3] - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal at the origin shows mixed trends, and the price of Mongolian coal drops. Steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1100 - 1250. [3] - Coke: The fourth round of price increases for coke is fully implemented, but the port trading price drops. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1600 - 1750. [3] Non - ferrous - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious, and the copper price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87000. [3] - Aluminum: The aluminum price corrects with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the subsequent improvement of the fundamentals. The main contract reference range is 21200 - 21800, and if the positions continue to decrease, there is still downward room in the short term. [3] - Other Non - ferrous Metals: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] New Energy - Polysilicon: The demand is weak, and the polysilicon futures decline with fluctuations. The price fluctuation range is 50000 - 58000. [3] - Lithium Carbonate: The difference between long and short positions widens, and the market sentiment is adjusted. The market fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Chemical - PX: The positive support is limited, and PX fluctuates in the short term. It should be treated as fluctuating at a high level between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. [3] - PTA: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound of PTA is under pressure. It fluctuates in the 4500 - 4800 interval in the short term, and a rolling reverse arbitrage of TA1 - 5 is recommended. [3] - Other Chemical Products: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for short - fiber, bottle - grade chips, ethylene glycol, benzene, styrene, and other chemical products based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The crushing data is excellent, and US soybeans turn strong. Attention should be paid to the support around 3000 for the M01 contract. [3] - Live Hogs: The reluctance to sell sentiment rises, and the spot price shows signs of stabilization. A 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage should be held. [3] - Other Agricultural Products: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for corn, palm oil, raw sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, etc. based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3]