贵金属有色金属产业日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the precious metals market, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, short - term macro uncertainties about December interest rate cuts may lead to continued volatile adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average [3]. - In the copper market, concerns about non - farm data affecting interest rate cuts have led to capital reduction and price drops. Inventory increases and narrowing premiums reflect fundamental pressures, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - In the aluminum market, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a long - term oscillatory upward trend, but short - term weak fundamentals and a lower probability of December interest rate cuts may lead to profit - taking by previous funds, resulting in subsequent oscillatory consolidation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the expiration of a large number of warehouse receipts will exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand [36]. - In the zinc market, the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and a significant drop in November TC due to intense competition for ore in the smelting sector have increased the willingness of smelters to reduce or halt production in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - In the nickel and stainless - steel market, nickel - iron prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand. The downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure, and downstream demand remains weak [75]. - In the tin market, due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations, with support around 276,000 yuan [88]. - In the lithium carbonate market, strong demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors, combined with a slowdown in supply growth, may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - In the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range, weak oscillations [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Outlook: In the short term, due to unclear prospects of December interest rate cuts, precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust. In the long term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up prices [3]. - Price Charts: Include SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold long - term fund holdings, and SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories [4][12][16]. Copper - Price Outlook: Market concerns about non - farm data and inventory increases have led to price drops, with limited short - term repair space [17]. - Price Data: Spot prices from various sources (Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaoyi, etc.) have small daily increases. Futures prices of Shanghai copper and London copper show different trends, with Shanghai copper rising and London copper falling [22][23]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventories show different changes, with some warehouse receipts decreasing and LME copper inventories increasing [32][34]. Aluminum - Price Outlook: Shanghai aluminum may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [36]. - Price Data: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [38][45]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventories show different changes, and alumina warehouse receipts increase slightly [53]. Zinc - Price Outlook: Cooling interest rate cut expectations and a drop in November TC have increased the willingness of smelters to cut production. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and there are significant differences between bulls and bears [59]. - Price Data: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices show different trends, with Shanghai zinc rising and LME zinc falling slightly [60]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decrease, and LME zinc inventories increase [72]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Price Outlook: Nickel - iron prices decline due to weak downstream demand, and the downside space for nickel and stainless - steel is greater than the upside space. Stainless - steel spot sales face pressure [75]. - Price Data: Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices show different trends, with some rising and some falling [76]. - Inventory Data: Nickel warehouse receipts decrease [76]. Tin - Price Outlook: Due to limited resumption of production in Wabang, refined tin concentrate imports have sharply decreased, and supply is weaker than demand. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [88]. - Price Data: Shanghai tin and London tin futures prices show different trends, with Shanghai tin rising and London tin falling slightly [89]. - Inventory Data: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decrease, and LME tin inventories remain unchanged [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Outlook: Strong demand and slow supply growth may lead to a short - term strong and oscillatory trend in lithium prices, but position fluctuations should be watched out for [104]. - Price Data: Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices show an upward trend [105][109]. - Inventory Data: Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increase slightly, and social and downstream inventories decrease [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - Price Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, with wide - range oscillations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook [116]. - Price Data: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related product prices show different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [116]. - Inventory Data: Industrial silicon social inventory and polysilicon total inventory show different trends [134][143].