白糖日报-20251119

Group 1: Sugar Core View The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons, mainly due to the increase in sugar cane crushing volume and sugar production in Brazil and significant production growth in Indian sugar mills. In China, the import of sugar in October was 750,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213,200 tons. Coupled with the increase in new sugar supply from sugar mills starting operations, the spot price quotes have generally been lowered. Although the control of syrup imports and high costs support the price, the supply pressure dominates the short-term weakness [3]. Price and Spread - Futures Prices: On November 19, 2025, SR01 closed at 5381 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.48% and a weekly decline of 1.77%. Other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. - Price Spreads: SR01 - 05 was 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day and 19 yuan from the previous week [4]. Basis and Import Prices - Basis: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 353 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan from the previous day and 73 yuan from the previous week. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was 193 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from the previous day and 38 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Import Prices: On November 19, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day and up 92 yuan from the previous week. The out - of - quota price was 5143 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan from the previous day and up 120 yuan from the previous week [11]. Group 2: Cotton Core View Currently, the supply pressure of domestic cotton is gradually increasing, and there is still hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The demand side performance is currently average, and the upward momentum of cotton prices is lacking in the short term. The cotton price may fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downstream still has resilience, waiting for macroeconomic improvement [13]. Price and Spread - Futures Prices: On November 19, 2025, Cotton 01 closed at 13,485 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan with a daily increase of 0.67%. Cotton 05 closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan with a daily increase of 0.63% [14]. - Price Spreads: The cotton basis was 1394 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Cotton 01 - 05 was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Group 3: Apples Core View The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, and the trading is concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi production areas. The warehousing work is in the later stage. In ground trading, the apples in Qixia and Zhaoyuan in Shandong have not all been harvested, there are many merchants, and the striped apples are on the market. Fruit farmers mostly sell at the market price. In terms of warehousing progress, cold storages in Gansu have started to ship, the warehousing in Shaanxi is coming to an end, and the fruit farmers' apples in the western townships of Qixia in Shandong are still being warehoused. Shandong apples will gradually be shipped out next week, and small apples have sold well recently [17]. Price and Spread - Futures Prices: On November 19, 2025, AP01 closed at 9375 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 1.82%. AP03 closed at 9208 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.6% and a weekly increase of 1.3% [18]. - Price Spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 77 yuan/ton, down 35.83% from the previous day and 228.33% from the previous week. The main contract basis was - 538 yuan/ton, down 3.76% from the previous day and up 49.86% from the previous week [19]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View The new - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvesting stage. Currently, the new - season yield is still the core point of market game. At present, there is indeed a yield reduction in the southern Xinjiang production area, but the reduction range is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of the yield are also prone to deviations. In the short term, the red date price fluctuates greatly under the capital game, but under the yield reduction, as the purchase season begins, the downward space is expected to be limited for the time being. Pay attention to the subsequent commercial rate and purchase situation of new dates [25]. Price and Spread - Price Spreads: The red date futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends over time, and the data from 2021 - 2025 are presented in the report [26][28].