瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract first rose and then fell. The EU announced import quotas on steel alloys containing manganese or silicon. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Overall, steel mills in regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei are under routine inspections, and the coal - coke futures prices are continuously weakening, resulting in a mixed market with prices fluctuating within a range. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,277 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; the position volume was 1,196,921 lots, a decrease of 20,253 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 80,073 lots, a decrease of 11,189 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 150,567 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan; the basis of the HC main contract was 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,125.92 million tons, an increase of 231.11 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 36.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 622.15 million tons, a decrease of 4.41 million tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 116.66 million tons, a decrease of 3.34 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 313.66 million tons, a decrease of 4.50 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.13%, a decrease of 1.15 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 77.52 million tons, an increase of 0.09 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 333.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, a decrease of 149 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 928.00 million tons, a decrease of 64.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, an increase of 0.0829 million vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.3221 million vehicles, an increase of 0.0957 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a decrease of 1.3396 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a decrease of 0.7499 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 60.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. Beijing issued a financial support plan to boost and expand consumption, proposing to increase financial support for automobile, especially new - energy vehicle consumption, including optimizing auto - loan ratios, terms, and interest rates, and waiving penalties for early loan repayment during the trade - in process [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday are to be focused on [2].