瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market showed a significant increase today, and it remains in a short - term bullish trend, with attention on the upper pressure level of 9600 [2] - From the fundamental perspective of industrial silicon, the supply side will shrink next week as some enterprises in Southwest China plan to cut production due to the approaching dry season and expected sharp rise in electricity prices; the demand side varies in different downstream fields, with potential for increased demand in the organic silicon segment, a stable demand trend in the polysilicon segment, and limited pulling effect on industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy segment [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9390 yuan/ton, up 410; the position of the main contract was 306669 lots, up 58650; the net position of the top 20 was - 72756 lots, down 23271; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43412 lots, up 10; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 0, down 20 [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 60 yuan/ton, down 410; the spot price of DMC was 13000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402800 tons, up 36000; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 55.2 tons, up 1; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, up 602.27; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70232.72 tons, down 6409.29 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 4.49 tons, up 0.07; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21400 yuan/ton, up 100; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23495.34 tons, down 5568.37; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, up 2.92; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 177.6 tons, up 14.1; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23495.34 tons, down 5568.37 [2] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting. The industry aims to cut the operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price target of organic silicon DMC to 13500 yuan/ton within half a month [2]