瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251119

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - The U.S. corn harvest is nearly complete, with high short - term supply pressure. The USDA report is slightly bearish overall, but U.S. corn shows a strong oscillation due to the rise of soybeans and wheat. In China's Northeast, prices have risen due to purchases and reduced supply, but the slow market movement limits further price increases. In the North China Huang - Huai region, the strong reluctance of farmers to sell keeps market purchases low, and the price increase of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [2][3] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch inventory has decreased. Recently, the starch price has declined along with the corn market, suggesting short - term waiting and seeing [4] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2480 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 70 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 1 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract): 945,952 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 217,188 lots, down 1,539 lots. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 113,125 lots for corn, - 44,299 lots for corn starch, up 2,714 lots. Registered warehouse receipts: 69,337 lots for yellow corn, 12,453 lots for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 340 yuan/ton. CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 435.5 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts [2] Spot Market - Corn average spot price: 2,278.82 yuan/ton; corn flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port: 2,220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Imported corn CIF price: 2,032.69 yuan/ton; international freight for imported corn: 0 dollars/ton. Corn starch ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,510 yuan/ton, 2,750 yuan/ton, and 2,680 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 43 yuan, up 22 yuan; the basis of the corn main contract is - 7 yuan. The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2,500.06 yuan/ton. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 210 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas of corn in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. Forecasted corn yields in the United States, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are not provided. Deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 273.50 million tons, down 6 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory (weekly): 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons. Monthly corn import volume: 6 million tons; monthly corn starch export volume: 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons. Monthly feed production: 3,128.7 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 25.61 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 138.65 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 67.29%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 60.89%, down 2.59%. Corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 31 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.43%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.72%, up 0.03%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on corn: 7.92%, up 0.89% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending November 16, 2025, the U.S. corn harvest rate was 91%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 94%. As of November 15, 2025, the planting of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 52.6% complete, compared with 47.7% last week, 52.4% last year, and a five - year average of 53.0% [2]