瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons due to increased production [2]. - In the domestic market, the predicted sugar production in China for the 2025/26 season is 11.7 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets [2]. - Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan and nine in Guangxi have started production, with 17 fewer in Guangxi compared to the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start - up time [2]. - Sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,381 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 388,009 lots, up 24,796 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 8,428, down 183; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 55,431 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,147 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,143 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5,257 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 241.88 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 602.29 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil were 420.5 million tons, an increase of 26.66 million tons [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,428 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,341 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 345 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 231 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons; the cumulative import volume was 316 million tons, an increase of 55 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.43%, down 0.75%; that of at - the - money put options was 6.42%, down 0.77% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.2%, an increase of 0.83%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.98%, an increase of 0.22% [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, China's sugar imports were 750,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39%; from January to October 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons or 14% [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.10 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at 14.70 cents per pound on Tuesday due to sufficient supply [2].