瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The alumina market may be in a stage where supply is slightly converging and demand is generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a small accumulation of social inventory. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is advisable to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks [2] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly decreasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and manage risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,570 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the alumina futures main contract was 2,740 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,789.5 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars. The main - second - consecutive contract spreads of Shanghai aluminum and alumina changed by +5 yuan/ton and - 3 yuan/ton respectively. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of casting aluminum alloy was - 100 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - Positions and Inventories: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 8,714 hands to 347,833 hands, while those of alumina increased by 21,114 hands to 426,124 hands. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 548,075 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory increased by 1,564 tons to 114,899 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 21,550 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,775 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Basis: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 635 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The LME aluminum premium was - 35.81 dollars/ton, up 2.61 dollars; the basis of alumina was 35 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The alumina production in the current month was 786.5 million tons, down 13.4 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 86.96%, down 1.31 percentage points; the national alumina production start - up rate was 85.28%, down 0.70 percentage points [2] - Supply and Demand: The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2] - Import and Export: The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.4 tons, and the export volume increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 7 million tons to 18 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 3.44 million tons to 6 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 4,523.2 million tons, the production of aluminum products was 569.4 million tons, down 20.6 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons [2] - Supply and Demand Balance: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.54 million tons, up 1.45 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 31,034.96 tons to 59.7 million tons [2] - Import and Export: The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, and the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50 million tons, down 2 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile Production: The monthly automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,500 vehicles [2] - Real Estate Index: The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.87%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.27%, up 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 10.95%, down 0.0021 percentage points [2] - Put - Call Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.37, up 0.0285 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Employment Data: The average weekly reduction of private - sector employment in the US was 2,500 people in the four weeks ending November 1st. The initial jobless claims in the US were 232,000 in the week ending October 18th, and the continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million [2] - International Trade: Premier Li Qiang called on all parties to embrace free trade and reduce barriers at the SCO meeting [2] - Automobile Export: From January to September, China's automobile exports reached 4.95 million vehicles, 1.6 times that of Japan [2] - Policy Support: Beijing introduced a financial support plan to boost and expand consumption, focusing on new - energy vehicles and service - related industries [2] - Unemployment Rate: In October, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in China was 17.3%, 25 - 29 age group was 7.2%, and 30 - 59 age group was 3.8% [2] - EU Policy: The EU plans to restrict the export of scrap aluminum in spring 2026 [2]