建信期货沥青日报-20251119

Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Report Core View - With no support for oil prices and weakening asphalt demand, the central price of asphalt is expected to have further downside potential, and short - selling is recommended [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3054 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3032 yuan/ton, the highest was 3072 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3029 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.36%, and the trading volume was 157,100 lots. For BU2602, the opening price was 3068 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3052 yuan/ton, the highest was 3071 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3049 yuan/ton, the decline was 0.36%, and the trading volume was 30,100 lots [6] - Spot Market: Today, asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast regions were relatively stable, while prices in other regions declined to varying degrees. Some major refineries lowered their asphalt settlement prices, driving down the spot price. Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, and Yunnan Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in the middle of the month, so the operating rate is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, demand in the northern regions has shrunk significantly. Affected by rain and snow, road asphalt demand in the northwest, northeast, and northern North China will drop to zero. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the temperature will drop below freezing, and road projects will gradually stop, so the rigid demand for asphalt continues the seasonal downward trend. Rainfall in the northwest and the eastern part of the southwest has also affected project construction, and demand continues to decline marginally [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3020 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price difference between Qilu Petrochemical and local refineries widened, which was not conducive to resource consumption. Qilu lowered its settlement price, driving down the high - end price in the Shandong market. However, Hongrun stopped loading asphalt, Dongming shipped intermittently, and some refineries limited supply, so the tightened spot resources in circulation in Shandong were conducive to maintaining the firmness of local refinery prices, and the low - end price in the Shandong market rose slightly [8] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Sinopec Maoming lowered its road and shipping prices, and the quoted price of Jingbo Hainan's storage area also decreased, leading to a decline in the low - end price in the South China market. In addition, the intended price of new contracts in Jieyang is expected to be lowered, and the warehousing cost of some storage areas continues to decrease, which is negative for market sentiment [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of asphalt in South China, the basis of Shandong asphalt, the daily operating rate of asphalt, the comprehensive profit of Shandong asphalt, asphalt cracking, social inventory of asphalt, manufacturer inventory of asphalt, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][15][23]