建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251119

Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot egg prices across the country declined today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.87 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract dropped 0.87%. The spot market weakened again last week, with prices in the Hubei and Hunan powder egg regions, the main force of the previous rebound, gradually falling, while the supply and demand of red eggs in the north were relatively balanced and prices were stable. Market sales returned to sluggishness. Considering the cooler temperatures, egg storage conditions have improved, and there will be no large - scale dumping as in the rainy season and summer. Egg prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at low levels this week. [8] - Due to the temporary downturn in the spot market, futures prices declined this week. Near - month contracts had a larger decline due to approaching delivery, while far - month contracts were relatively firmer due to the expectation of reduced inventory. Fundamentally, the laying hen inventory decreased month - on - month for the first time in October, indicating that the poor breeding profits have gradually affected the supply side. The year - on - year data of the replenishment volume in the past four months also shows that there is an expectation of a continuous slight decline in the medium - term laying hen inventory. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the greater the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. [8] - In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate at low levels, and the low spot prices may continue for some time. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may still be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - month contracts is advisable. [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2601 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3213, the opening price was 3222, the highest price was 3233, the lowest price was 3164, the closing price was 3185, down 28 or 0.87%, with a trading volume of 208,846 and an open interest of 214,974, an increase of 202,658. - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3029, the opening price was 3037, the highest price was 3043, the lowest price was 2965, the closing price was 2970, down 59 or 1.95%, with a trading volume of 56,431 and an open interest of 123,191, an increase of 5,926. - For the 2512 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2992, the opening price was 2970, the highest price was 2981, the lowest price was 2927, the closing price was 2930, down 62 or 2.07%, with a trading volume of 73,622 and an open interest of 50,827, a decrease of 6,510. [7] - Operation Suggestions: Short - term low - level fluctuations are expected. Low spot prices may persist. Opportunities for long positions in far - month contracts can be considered on dips, but there may be fluctuations in the near term. A reverse spread between near - and far - month contracts is advisable. [8] 2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, down 0.66% month - on - month from 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but up 5.59% year - on - year compared with 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024. [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly down from 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly down from 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment in the past four months (July - October 2025) was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024. [9] 3. Data Overview - Culling Volume: As of November 13, 2025, the national culling volumes in the previous three weeks were 20.53 million, 19.81 million, and 19.47 million respectively, showing a downward trend recently. [17] - Culling Age: As of November 13, 2025, the average culling age was 493 days, unchanged from last week and 6 days earlier than last month. [17]