瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 19th, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5642, down 1.16%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continues to decline slightly, and inventory has risen for 7 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end decreased by 13.4 tons, and the overall demand for hot metal has a seasonal decline. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 19th, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5504, down 1.01%. Coal weakening led to an adjustment in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, and inventory has risen for two consecutive weeks. The daily K - line is above the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,642 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,462 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest: 715,001 lots, up 48,355 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 423,558 lots, up 25,031 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net open interest: - 12,370 lots, up 9,528 lots; Ferrosilicon top 20 net open interest: - 16,726 lots, up 1,826 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 58 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 2 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 19,744 sheets, down 119 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 8,396 sheets, down 47 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B: 5,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,579 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 242 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 142 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port: 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.59%, down 0.65%; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, down 1.42% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 199,570 tons, down 2,310 tons; Ferrosilicon supply: 109,100 tons, down 5,000 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 349,500 tons, up 30,000 tons; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory: 81,360 tons, up 2,670 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory: 15.7 days, down 0.23 days; Ferrosilicon national steel mill inventory: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 118,589 tons, down 2,524 tons; Five major steel types' ferrosilicon demand: 19,073.8 tons, down 739.9 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 82.79%, down 0.36%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization: 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - October national crude steel production: 7,199.7 tons, down 149.31 tons; January - October cumulative crude steel production: 81,787.4 tons, down 3.9% year - on - year [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The EU announced import quotas for steel alloys containing manganese or silicon for three years, setting quotas by ferro - alloy category and exporting country to limit duty - free imports in the EU [2]. - Local "state - owned" platforms in Beijing, Guangzhou, Fuzhou, etc. have publicly sold real estate this year, which should not be interpreted as a sell - off [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 180 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 380 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's November silicon - manganese final price is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 250 yuan/ton; Ningxia spot profit is - 480 yuan/ton. HeSteel's November 75B ferrosilicon tender price is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].