建信期货原油日报-20251119

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]