建信期货国债日报-20251119

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved, with the bottom of Treasury bond futures supported by the central bank's bond purchases. Considering the slowdown in economic momentum, expectations of monetary easing are likely to heat up again. It is advisable to seize opportunities to buy on dips. In the short term, the release of weak economic data is expected to boost market expectations of monetary easing, but this week's tax payment period may cause disturbances, and long - term varieties are expected to outperform short - term ones [12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: A - share weakness boosted risk - aversion sentiment, but the tax payment period tightened the capital market, resulting in narrow fluctuations across the board in Treasury bond futures. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds also fluctuated narrowly. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 rose 0.15bp to 1.8040% [8][9] - Funding Market: Monday was the tax declaration deadline, and the impact of the tax period will continue for 2 - 3 working days. The capital market tightened further. The central bank achieved a net injection of 3.7 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index rose significantly, with the overnight weighted average rate of inter - bank deposits rising 1.66bp to 1.5285%, and the 7 - day rate fluctuating around 1.5239%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [10] - Economic Fundamentals: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken, especially in the investment sector, which has accelerated its decline. Exports, which were the main support for the economy, turned negative in October. With weak domestic demand and low price indicators, the economic fundamentals still face pressure [11] - Policy: Currently, loose monetary and fiscal policies are being intensified. The restart of Treasury bond trading has brought direct buying demand to the bond market. The effect of loose fiscal policies on credit expansion may not be significant in the short term, and the impact on the bond market should be limited. The central bank may increase its efforts to support economic growth, and the space for monetary easing is expected to expand [12] 2. Industry News - Diplomatic: China has lodged solemn representations and strong protests against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Premier Li Qiang has no arrangements to meet with Japanese leaders during the G20 Summit [13] - Financial: The Fourth China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was jointly chaired by Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng and German Vice - Chancellor and Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Both sides welcomed cross - listing of depositary receipts between the two countries and agreed to promote the interconnection of financial infrastructure [13] - Fiscal: From January to October this year, China's national fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the national fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to October, national fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [13] - Foreign Exchange: In October, the bank settlement surplus was 17.7 billion US dollars, narrowing month - on - month. Cross - border capital inflows increased in October, and the average monthly cross - border payment surplus in September and October was 24 billion US dollars [14] - Real Estate: Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has shown a trend of being dominated by second - hand housing transactions and gradually stabilizing. From January to October, the online signing area of second - hand housing transactions increased by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 44.8% of the total transactions [14] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides data on the trading of Treasury bond futures contracts on November 18, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests [6] - Money Market: The report presents data on the term structure and trends of SHIBOR, as well as changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase [28][32] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]