瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that nickel prices will fluctuate weakly. On the macro - level, the US initial jobless claims and continued claims have increased. Fundamentally, the PNBP policy in Indonesia restricts supply and raises costs, while Philippine nickel ore supply is high but with lower grades and domestic nickel ore inventories are lower than the same period last year. Refined nickel production growth is expected to be limited due to slow new project launches and some smelters' loss - induced production cuts. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' production is expected to rise despite the off - peak season, and new energy vehicles contribute a small demand increment. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the increase in positions and falling prices indicate a growing bearish sentiment. It is expected that short - term Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA5 pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,650 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the 12 - 01 month contract spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 14,645 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars. - The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 85,012 lots, down 14,670 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 32,089 lots, down 914 lots. - LME nickel inventory is 257,832 tons, up 138 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 40,573 tons, up 3,386 tons. - The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,632 tons, down 324 tons; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 34,631 tons, down 793 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the NI main contract is 1,950 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 199.86 dollars/ton, up 3.71 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons. - The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,509.49 million tons, up 27.83 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars. - The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons. - The total monthly nickel - iron production is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 108.53 million tons, up 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, up 2.48 million tons. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 59.12 million tons, up 2.04 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the US initial jobless claims totaled 232,000, and the continued claims were 1.957 million, slightly up from the previous week's 1.947 million. - Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, emphasizing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia [3].