瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Today, the price of polysilicon started to rise again due to the resonance of the increase in industrial silicon price and power cost, but the increase was significantly lower than that of industrial silicon. It is expected that the upward momentum will be limited in the future, and attention should be paid to the resistance level above 56,000 yuan/ton [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 54,625 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,415 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract was 134,317 lots, with a week-on-week decrease of 2,774 lots; the basis between the December and January contracts of polysilicon was 2,160 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,240 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 45,235 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2,005 yuan/ton [3] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 52,300 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the average price of N-type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.27 yuan/piece, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the basis of polysilicon was -355 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1,390 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change; the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602.27 tons; the output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10,000 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 130,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon was 1,292 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.92 US dollars/kg, with no week-on-week change; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China was 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month-on-month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the weekly average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, with no week-on-week change; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 32.82, with no week-on-week change; the daily average price of solar cells was 0.82 yuan/watt, with a week-on-week increase of 0.01 yuan/watt; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 129,531,200 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules was 14,733,700 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.3 US dollars/piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 US dollars/piece [3] Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting attended by the heads of many listed companies. The meeting reached a unified goal: to reduce the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December, and to raise the price target of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton and strive to achieve it within half a month. In terms of polysilicon, on the supply side, as the southwest region gradually enters the dry season, power supply is tight and costs have risen significantly. Polysilicon producers in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places are facing greater cost pressures, and some enterprises have planned to reduce their operating rates. In the northwest regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, with abundant coal resources, the power cost is relatively stable, and the polysilicon production capacity is operating smoothly. On the demand side, the demand in the downstream cell and module markets is weak, and the inventory pressure of silicon wafer enterprises has increased. They have to reduce production to ease the supply-demand contradiction. The slowdown in terminal market demand and the continuous decline in photovoltaic product prices have compressed corporate profit margins and dampened production enthusiasm [3]